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Posted by on in Market Reports

Monday 26th of August 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The equity markets rallied Friday and closed up for the week even though the Fed minutes indicated that tapering is a question about when and not if.  So I my opinion this market will see more downside in the near term. 

“Price gains of stocks in the S&P 500 are outpacing profits by the fastest rate in 14 years as the bull market extends beyond the average length of rallies since 1946. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities has risen 14 percent relative to income over the past 12 months to 16 times earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Valuations last climbed this fast in the final year of the 1990s technology bubble, just before the index began a 49 percent tumble” according to Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-25/gold-holds-gains-as-wti-climbs-on-fed-asian-futures-rise.html

 

The UK market is closed today, so the European markets and FX markets have been pretty thin in European trading today and we have to wait for the US session to open to see any decent moves.

The Dax futures have been stuck in a sideways range of less than 20 points since 10 CET this morning, which is pretty tight to say the least.

 

Take a look at the EURUSD chart and one can see that it has been trading in a range for a very long period of time and the range has been getting tighter and tighter over the last months. I think a major break out in just around the corner, which direction remains to be seen.

 

Asian markets: Nikkei 225 down 0.18%, Shanghai up 2.13% and S&P/ASX 200 up 0.24%

Earnings today: only 11 companies reporting today

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

 

VIX index closed at 13.98 Friday

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Thursday 22th of August 2013 as of 14:00 CET

The FOMC minutes out last night caused a fair amount of volatility across all markets and at the end of the day the S&P500 futures at the very low of the daily range at 1634.75. This morning the futures are trading up 6 points at 1642 and the Dax spiked much higher in the morning and testing the key resistance at 8400 after Euro zone business growth hits two-year high.

Take a look at the EURUSD chart and one can see that it has been trading in a range for a very long period of time and the range has been getting tighter and tighter over the last months. I think a major break out in just around the corner, which direction remains to be seen.

Major news this morning:

-          Euro zone flash manufacturing PMI increased to 26 month high of 51.3 in Aug.

-          HSBC China PMI expended for the first time in four months coming in at 50.1 in Aug.

-          H-P shares trading down 8% following earnings

-          Iran wants to boost oil production by 70%

Asian markets: Nikkei 225 down 0.44%, Shanghai down 0.20% and S&P/ASX 200 down 0.48%

Earnings today: Abercrombie & Fitch ($0.28), GAP Inc. among others

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX index closed last night at 15.94

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1663

8424

110.00

510

1.3596

Res 2

1657

8410

108.92

500

1.3519

Res 1

1653

8397

108.22

499

1.3420

Sup1

1632

8240

103.50

477

1.3314

Sup 2

1629

8228

102.22

469

1.3264

Sup 3

1625

8201

100.48

463

1.3280

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.75

14.92

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1624

8130

100.03

733

1.3150

200 EMA

1568

7922

97.94

695

1.3073

14 Day avg. Volume

1466K

76K

165K

78K

185K

S&P 500 Emini futures – Technically weak below 1647 today with key resistance up at 1657. A break above 1647 would signal a potential near term bottom is in place at 1632.

Dax futures – The test of 8400 resistance this morning is interesting and any break above 8400 is bullish in my opinion. Any rejection at 8400 would be bearish, so the 8400 is very important level to watch near term.

Corn – Looking bullish above 484 today and I favour buying dips as long as this support level holds. Next major resistance is  499.

Crude Oil – Key support today comes in at 103.50 and it looks like a potential long trade towards that level.

Euro – Plenty of resistance between 1.3420 to 1.3500 and I think we need to move above 1.35 in the next few sessions to avoid a setback down towards support at 1.3200, which is the key level for bulls to hold for the moment to maintain the potential for a test higher.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Weekly Claims (329K)

15:00     US Flash Manufacturing PMI (54.1)

All day Jackson Hole Symposium

21:15     Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Tuesday 20th of August 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The S&P500 futures broke below 1647 key support yesterday, which is opening for a move lower to close the open gap at 1629 near term. The lack of volume is a major problem though if you are looking for a larger down move. I would have liked to see an increase in volume on the break lower yesterday, but that didn’t really happen. So it will be very important to see what the market do over the next two sessions. I think there is plenty of potential in both directions, so one has to watch out for being caught off guard when the big move starts.

Take a look at the EURUSD chart and one can see that it has been trading in a range for a very long period of time and the range has been getting tighter and tighter over the last months. I think a major break out in just around the corner, which direction remains to be seen.

Another major point is that the Crude oil is not able to move higher even though the violence is escalating in Egypt. This signals that a lot is already priced in and maybe the upside is limited?

All eyes will turn to the FOMC statement released tomorrow at 20:00 CET, to look for any guidance on the QE tapering.

Major news this morning:

-          Home Depot earnings beat expectations coming in at $1.24 per share vs. $0.03 exp.- Bloomberg

-          Indonesian market closed down 3.21% and Nikkei 225 down 2.08% on emerging markets growth concerns.

Asian markets: Nikkei 225 down 2.08%, Shanghai down 0.81% and S&P/ASX 200 down 0.67%

Earnings today: Best Buy ($0.12), J.C Penney ($-1.13) among others

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX index closed last night at 15.10

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1675

8424

110.00

510

1.3596

Res 2

1661

8410

108.92

500

1.3519

Res 1

1656

8328

108.22

499

1.3420

Sup1

1640

8240

106.52

477

1.2877

Sup 2

1635

8228

105.64

469

1.2738

Sup 3

1625

8201

104.76

463

1.2650

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.75

14.92

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1623

8124

100.03

733

1.3148

200 EMA

1565

7915

97.94

695

1.3066

14 Day avg. Volume

1432K

76K

165K

78K

197K

S&P 500 Emini futures – Break below 1647 yesterday was a bearish signal and opens for a slide towards 1620.  There is also an open gap at 1629 that should now have potential to be closed. One thing to keep in mind is that the volume on the latest sell off has been relatively low and this needs to change if we are going to get any larger down move beyond this morning’s low of 1641.

Dax futures – The interim uptrend was broken this morning with the break below 8324 support sending it lower to 8244 and testing the 8th of August low. There is solid support towards 8200 level, which should hold today.  A daily close below 8200 level would mean trouble for the bulls and could start a larger sell off.

Corn – Looking bullish above 484 today and I favour buying dips as long as this support level holds. Next major resistance is  499.

Crude Oil – Not corresponding to violence out of Egypt over the weekend and therefore the bulls needs to be cautious. Looks like most of the bad news are priced in for now. Needs to hold 105.70 today to keep the bulls happy.

Euro – Plenty of resistance between 1.3420 to 1.3500 and I think we need to move above 1.35 in the next few sessions to avoid a setback down towards support at 1.3200, which is the key level for bulls to hold for the moment to maintain the potential for a test higher.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

No major US data today

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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