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Posted by on in Market Reports

Tuesday 17th of September 2013 as of 11:30 CET

Shanghai closed down over 2% in Asia and S&P500 futures are trading down by 1 point at 1697 at the time of writing. We still have the big open gap below current price in both S&P500, Dax futures and US 10 year treasury among others that is something to watch. The big event over the next few days will be the FOMC meeting and announcement, where the statement will be released tomorrow at 20:00 CET. The market is looking for more clarification on the tapering question and I expect to see some major moves following this release tonight. The biggest risk in my opinion would be if the Fed is a bit more aggressive regarding the tapering, which would send the market much lower. However I don’t think the Fed will risk potential back drop in the economy so I expect the tapering will be very slow and gradual and the Fed will most likely confirm this stance.

On a side note the GBPUSD is approaching the 1.60 level and there is good resistance towards this level.  

Asian equity markets traded mixed overnight Nikkei 225 down 0.65%, Shanghai down 2.06% and S&P/ASX 200 up 0.06%

We have earnings from Adobe ($0.21) today.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 14.38 yesterday and I think towards the 12 level it would be a decent long trade.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1720

8700

109.77

504

1.3458

Res 2

1712

8665

109.17

493

1.3423

Res 1

1706

8630

108.73

485

1.3390

Sup1

1695

8575

106.07

468

1.3248

Sup 2

1690

8521

105.56

463

1.3223

Sup 3

1680

8453

104.22

453

1.3163

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.75

14.92

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1634

8186

100.03

530

1.3150

200 EMA

1586

8010

97.94

564

1.3073

14 Day avg. Volume

1391K

88K

165K

83K

185K

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Gapping higher and reaching high of 1712 yesterday, and this massive gap higher is a bit difficult, because we often see some initial selling to try and close the gap and the reaction of this price action is important to watch to see how strong the market is. The will be closed by a move down to 1690.50.

Dax futures – Big overhead resistance at 8665 that is the next big resistance level. Key support is the former high at 8561, so as long as this level holds the market is looking bullish. The open gap is down at 8521.

 Corn –  Rolled to the December contract and we have good support around the 454 level and as long as this level holds there is potential for a move higher. If 454 is broken, the key support at 429 is within reach.

Crude – With Syria conflict less likely to escalate in the near term, it looks like some of the risk premium should come out of Crude.  Key support is 104.22 and I would not be that surprised if this level is taken out this week. 

Euro –  Have falling resistance coming in at 1.3390 that is a key pivot point in my view for the direction of the Euro the next few days. If this level is taken out the focus is on a test of the 1.3450-1.3500 key resistance level. If it fails up here, then the next leg should be a deeper sell off.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Empire Core CPI (0.1%)

15:00     US TIC flows (-45.3B)

16:00     US NAHB Housing Index (59)

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Monday 16th of September 2013 as of 15:00 CET

Big gap higher on the Dax this morning at the open following news out of Washington that Larry Summers will not be the next Fed Chairman. In addition Russia and the US reached an agreement on Syria over the weekend.

The market is favouring Janet Yellen as the next Fed Chairman as she is seen as the person most likely to continue the current policy of QE. I am a bit sceptic to how long this news will lift the markets, but might be too early to short just yet and I don’t like the big opening gaps, they tend to be filled.

Equities in US and Europe are much higher this morning and the Euro and GBP is spiking higher. The US 10 year treasury is much lower following the Summers announcement and down to 2.8%.

Asian equity markets traded mixed overnight Nikkei 225 up 0.12%, Shanghai down 0.42% and S&P/ASX 200 up 0.54%

No major companies report earnings today.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 14.16 Friday and I think towards the 12 level it would be a decent long trade.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1720

8700

109.77

504

1.3458

Res 2

1712

8665

109.17

493

1.3423

Res 1

1706

8630

108.73

485

1.3390

Sup1

1695

8561

106.07

468

1.3248

Sup 2

1692

8510

105.56

463

1.3223

Sup 3

1680

8453

104.22

453

1.3163

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.75

14.92

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1634

8186

100.03

530

1.3150

200 EMA

1586

8010

97.94

564

1.3073

14 Day avg. Volume

1391K

88K

165K

83K

185K

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Gapping higher and reaching high of 1712 in Asia, and this massive gap higher is a bit difficult because, we often see some initial selling to try and close the gap and the reaction of this price action is important to watch to see how strong the market is.

Dax futures – Big overhead resistance at 8665 that is the next big resistance level. Key support is the former high at 8561, so as long as this level holds the market is looking bullish.

Corn –  New multi month low this morning and this market is not responding well, so we need to see how it closes today before we make any new analysis.

 

 

 

Crude – With Syria conflict less likely to escalate in the near term, it looks like some of the risk premium should come out of Crude.  Key support is 104.22 and I would not be that surprised if this level is taken out this week.  

Euro –  Have falling resistance coming in at 1.3390 that is a key pivot point in my view for the direction of the Euro the next few days. If this level is taken out the focus is on a test of the 1.3450-1.3500 key resistance level. If it fails up here, then the next leg should be a deeper sell off.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Empire State Manufacturing Index (9.2)

15:15     US industrial Production (0.5%)

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Friday 13th of September 2013 as of 11:00 CET

Both the S&P500 and Dax futures backed off the key resistance levels yesterday and the rally from the Friday’s lows are coming to an halt and equity futures are trading marginally lower this morning.

There is a series of key economic data from the US out later today, which will probably affect the tapering debate, so keep an close eye on US Retail Sales and PPI data at 14:30 CET and Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 15:55 CET.

Euro failed just above the 1.33 level again and ECB’s Hansen said Wednesday that they consider another round of LTRO and Draghi said yesterday that ECB still emphasized the asymmetrical interest bias.

Coffee futures are again above the 1.20 level and I think we might have bottomed out in the coffee market.

Asian equity markets traded mixed overnight Nikkei 225 up 0.12%, Shanghai down 0.74% and S&P/ASX 200 down 0.44%

No major companies report earnings today.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 14.29 last night and I think towards the 12 level it would be a decent long trade.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1705

8568

109.77

504

1.3423

Res 2

1695

8538

109.17

493

1.3390

Res 1

1691

8516

108.73

485

1.3329

Sup1

1680

8439

107.20

468

1.3248

Sup 2

1677

8324

106.51

463

1.3223

Sup 3

1667

8268

106.36

453

1.3163

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.75

14.92

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1633

8174

100.03

530

1.3150

200 EMA

1584

8005

97.94

564

1.3073

14 Day avg. Volume

1502K

90K

165K

83K

185K

S&P 500 Emini futures – Tested key resistance at 1690 yesterday, but was rejected on the first test. Key support to keep the bullish trend alive is 1677 now and if this level is broken we could see a deeper sell off.

Dax futures – The 8500 level has proved to be hard resistance over the last months and it has not been able to stay above this level more than 4 days total all year and it has traded significantly lower over the following week every time. Will it be different this time? The volume on the approach towards 8500 have not been that solid and this signals it might be though to break above the 8568 high on this rally as well.  However for every hour that passes by and the prices keeps above 8460 makes it more likely a break will happen.

Corn – Pretty good rebound off that 465 low yesterday and I am looking for a move higher next towards 493 resistance over the next week.  

Crude Oil – Key support today comes in at 107.20 and looks like a long on dips as long as the Syria situation is still in focus. A break below 107.20 might be a bigger problem and could trigger a deeper sell off. Keep in mind that we probably have a 10 USD/barrel risk premium due to the unrest in the Middle East.

Euro – Looks bearish below 1.3350 now and next downside target is 1.3070 support.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Retail Sales (0.5%)

14:30     US PPI (0.2%)

15:55     Michigan Consumer Sentiment (82.6)

All Day ECOFIN Meetings           

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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