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Posted by on in Market Reports

Monday 30th of September 2013 as of 14:00 CET

It is all about risk off this morning as the countdown to a potential “shutdown “in Washington is on, with about 16 hours to go at the time of writing.

The equity markets pretty much didn’t pay much attention to a potential shut down until at the very end of the week, but with no solution over the weekend it now looks much more likely. We can still get a last minute solution, but then we have probably more political mess when the debt ceiling debate starts in a bit over a week. A partial closing of the government could cost about $8bln each day, so a short term shutdown would have a limited impact.

Credit default swaps have started to move up on the US as well, which is not a good thing.

S&P500 futures are now trading at 1671 at the time of writing, which is below the key support at 1680 and the high on the Fed announcement looks like a major high potential now.  

Chinese data on the manufacturing came in softer than anticipated, coming in at 50.2 vs. expectations of 51.2.

Asian equity markets ex China traded mostly lower overnight Nikkei 225 down 2.06%, Shanghai up 0.59% and S&P/ASX 200 down 1.66%.

In Europe we have plenty of turmoil as well in Italy with Berlusconi pulling out his representatives from the Government, which could lead to new elections.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX will spike higher at the open and I would not be surprised to see a run well past 18 and maybe towards 20.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1702

8727

105.59

470

1.3738

Res 2

1697

8696

105.13

464

1.3674

Res 1

1683

8612

104.06

459

1.3570

Sup1

1671

8553

102.36

450

1.3460

Sup 2

1665

8528

102.20

447

1.3223

Sup 3

1662

8456

101.46

440

1.3163

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

16

17

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1640

8275

100.03

497

1.3150

200 EMA

1589

8068

97.94

528

1.3073

14 Day avg. Volume

1290K

75K

165K

85K

185K

S&P 500 Emini futures – Key support at 1665 which is an open gap that I am looking to be filled near term.  The break below 1680 overnight signals we could easily be on the way towards 1600. A move above 1683 resistance would give the power back to the bulls.

Dax futures – Looking for a move down to fill the open gap at 8528, which should provide some support if hit. Key resistance at 8612 today and I expect this to hold for the rest of the day. If the 8612 resistance is taken out then we are heading for 8640-50 area.

Corn –  Rolled to the December contract and we have good support around the 454 level and as long as this level holds there is potential for a move higher. If 454 is broken, the key support at 429 is within reach.

Crude – Going lower and lower over the last week and there is rising support at 101.40, which needs to hold today to avoid a sell off to 98.40.

Euro – A daily close above 1.3550 would confirm a break out, which would target 1.3738 next. Another failure up at the 1.3550 area would be quite bearish at this point and then a test of 1.3460 key support would come back into focus.

 

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

15:45     Chicago PMI (54.5)

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Friday 27th of September 2013 as of 13:00 CET

The market is softer this morning as traders are scaling back on the bullish bets ahead of the budget votes today and there is now only three days left before the federal spending authority runs out and a few weeks before the US hits the borrowing limit according to Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/u-s-stock-index-futures-decline-amid-concerns-on-budget.html

Credit default swaps have started to move up on the US as well, which is not a good thing.

It is decision time for the S&P500 futures and the market will either bounce good off the current levels or we are seeing the start of a deeper sell off. There is a an open gap at 1683.25 in the S&P500 futures that I am looking to be filled and then we need to see what the price action is off that level.  There is another gap at 1665 in the S&P500 futures that is a good downside target if 1683 support breaks.

Crude oil found some support at 102.40 this morning and is back above the 103 level as I type.
The Euro is testing 1.3550 and a break above this level opens for 1.3650 or so.

Asian equity markets traded mixed overnight Nikkei 225 down 0.26%, Shanghai up 0.44% and S&P/ASX 200 up 0.24%

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 14.40 yesterday, which is not high given the uncertainty we have with the debt ceiling debate on deck in Washington.

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Wednesday 18th of September 2013 as of 13:00 CET

Nikkei rallied 1.35% overnight and the Dax spiked to new multi month high (8647) this morning. It seems like most people think the equity market will continue to rally higher.

The big question is how much tapering will be announced by the Fed tonight at 20:00 CET. It looks to me like the market is expecting something in the range of 10-15 bln and majority of that should be in Treasuries. Another market mover is of course the FOMC press conference at 20:30, where Bernanke might give us some surprises or not?

The biggest risk in my opinion would be if the Fed is a bit more aggressive regarding the tapering, which would send the market much lower. However I don’t think the Fed will risk potential back drop in the economy so I expect the tapering will be very slow and gradual and the Fed will most likely confirm this stance.

On a side note the GBPUSD is approaching the 1.60 level and there is good resistance towards this level.  

We still have the big open gaps from Monday below current price in both S&P500, Dax futures and US 10 year treasury among others that is something to watch.

Asian equity markets traded mixed overnight Nikkei 225 up 1.35%, Shanghai up 0.21% and S&P/ASX 200 down 0.25%

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 14.43 yesterday, which I expect to come down following the Fed announcement tonight and I think towards the 12 level it would be a decent long trade.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1720

8700

109.77

504

1.3458

Res 2

1712

8665

109.17

493

1.3423

Res 1

1706

8630

108.73

485

1.3390

Sup1

1695

8575

106.07

468

1.3248

Sup 2

1690

8521

105.56

463

1.3223

Sup 3

1680

8453

104.22

453

1.3163

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.75

14.92

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1634

8186

100.03

530

1.3150

200 EMA

1586

8010

97.94

564

1.3073

14 Day avg. Volume

1391K

88K

165K

83K

185K

 

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – Gapping higher and reaching high of 1712 yesterday, and this massive gap higher is a bit difficult, because we often see some initial selling to try and close the gap and the reaction of this price action is important to watch to see how strong the market is. The gap  will be closed by a move down to 1690.50.

Dax futures – Big overhead resistance at 8665 that is the next big resistance level. Key support is the former high at 8561, so as long as this level holds the market is looking bullish. The open gap is down at 8521.

Corn –  Rolled to the December contract and we have good support around the 454 level and as long as this level holds there is potential for a move higher. If 454 is broken, the key support at 429 is within reach.

Crude – With Syria conflict less likely to escalate in the near term, it looks like some of the risk premium should come out of Crude.  Key support is 104.22 and I would not be that surprised if this level is taken out this week.  Watch out for the DOE inventory data at 16:30.

Euro – Have falling resistance coming in at 1.3390 that is a key pivot point in my view for the direction of the Euro the next few days. If this level is taken out the focus is on a test of the 1.3450-1.3500 key resistance level. If it fails up here, then the next leg should be a deeper sell off.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Building Permits (0.95M)

16:30     DOE Crude Inventories

20:00     FOMC Statement and Economic Projections

20:30     FOMC Press Conference

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

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