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Posted by on in Uncategorized

The Dax and ES (S&P500 emini futures) closed strong after a big gap lower at the open, especially the ES, which opened almost 20 points lower in Asia. Normally large gaps like that tends to be reversed somewhat, but it was very surprising to see the ES close higher on the day and take out the high from Friday at 1700.25.

Crude traded in a relatively large range of 1.56 USD per barrel. It sold off early on and tested key support of 101 and then it rallied back up to 102.62. The quick rebound after making the daily low was a good long opportunity.

 

Stats

Dax futures  - winning % = 60, average trade duration= 3 min and 10 sec, total points =+ 13 points

Crude  - winning % = 100, average trade duration= 7 min and 21 sec, total points = +60 cents

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Monday 14th of October 2013 as of 14:00 CET

S&P500 futures opening much lower in Asia, down by close to 20 point, but has since gained support and trading down by 10 points at the moment at 1689. Dax futures are holding up better than the S&P500 futures and Dax is just down by 5 points vs. the European close on Friday.

The Q3 earnings will start to get underway in full this week and it is important to pay attention to the earnings growth and not only Washington.  Also keep in mind that the US shutdown has lead to a massive backlog of US data that has not been released. 

 

A few things to keep in mind for today:

-          US shutdown and negations in Washington is likely to continue to dictate the price action

-          German MSCI index has outperformed the MSCI EMU by 50% since 2003 and some analysts are looking for this trend to change.

-          Gold has not been able to recover much given the uncertainty out of Washington

-          Crude has key support at 100.50-101.00 area

-          Corn is testing multiyear key support at 430

 

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

 

VIX closed at 15.72 Friday, but it will open much higher given the gap lower in S&P500 futures.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1702

8778

106.66

470

1.3657

Res 2

1697

8749

104.52

464

1.3639

Res 1

1681

8725

103.14

459

1.3575

Sup1

1671

8653

101.10

434

1.3505

Sup 2

1661

8609

100.50

427

1.3460

Sup 3

1648

8542

98.96

420

1.3390

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

16

17

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1644

8337

101.50

486

1.3279

200 EMA

1595

8122

98.83

520

1.3202

14 Day avg. Volume

1606K

82K

165K

85K

159K

 

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – The open gap in Asia was very large and looking for a move to test at least 1692 resistance an possibly 1696, but I don’t think the gap will get filled today, unless we have a solution out of Washington. Selling rallies below 1696 looks the most interesting for today.

Dax futures – Gap at 8740 might be filled, but I still looking to sell rallies below this level. The main target on the downside is 8530.

Corn –  Big support around the 430 level and looking like a potential long trade down here.

Crude – Key support at 100.50 to 101.00 and looking for a bounce in this area towards 105.

 

Euro – Chart looking bullish above 1.3480 and October has historically been a very good month for the Euro last 3 years, so maybe a bit early to sell this one just yet.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

All day Columbus day Holiday (CME is open regular hours)

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Monday 7th of October 2013 as of 14:00 CET

Equity markets are lower this morning with the DAX down 0.89% and the S&P500 futures down 0.83% at the time of writing. The US nonfarm Payrolls did not get published Friday because of the shutdown and we are seeing massive headline risk on both the upside and downside as long as these situation continues. The US shutdown is getting a bigger problem each day and for every week the shut down goes on it is expected to cut 15bps of Q4 GDP.

We have seen good volume in the current area of the S&P500 futures and ranges have gotten tighter over the last week and it looks like prices are getting ready to break out. Which way  the market breaks remains to be seen, but key levels on the S&P500 are 1681 resistance and 1661 and 1648 support.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 16.74 on Friday.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1702

8686

105.59

470

1.3657

Res 2

1697

8653

105.13

464

1.3639

Res 1

1681

8566

104.06

459

1.3575

Sup1

1671

8510

102.36

434

1.3505

Sup 2

1661

8456

102.20

427

1.3460

Sup 3

1648

8412

101.46

420

1.3390

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

16

17

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1644

8303

100.03

497

1.3279

200 EMA

1595

8098

97.94

528

1.3202

14 Day avg. Volume

1606K

82K

165K

85K

159K

 

 

S&P 500 Emini futures – The open gap down at 1663 was filled last week and we have key support at 1661 and 1648 now.  We have key resistance at 1681 and 1695, which needs to be taken out to avoid a selloff in the next few sessions.  On daily chart is looks like we have a bearish formation in form of a triangle.

Dax futures – Gap at 8528 is finally filled and it might bounce off that 8510 support line, but overall the daily

Corn –  Rolled to the December contract and we have good support around the 454 level and as long as this level holds there is potential for a move higher. If 454 is broken, the key support at 429 is within reach.

Crude – Going lower and lower over the last week and there is rising support at 101.40, which needs to hold today to avoid a sell off to 98.40.

Euro – Looks like a potential near term top at 1.3653 from last week and I am looking for a move lower towards 1.3504 support next. However keep in mind that October has been a very strong month over the last years for the Euro, so maybe not the right time to be very bearish?

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

21:00     US Consumer Credit (12.6B)

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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