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Friday 13th of September Market Report

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Friday 13th of September 2013 as of 11:00 CET

Both the S&P500 and Dax futures backed off the key resistance levels yesterday and the rally from the Friday’s lows are coming to an halt and equity futures are trading marginally lower this morning.

There is a series of key economic data from the US out later today, which will probably affect the tapering debate, so keep an close eye on US Retail Sales and PPI data at 14:30 CET and Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 15:55 CET.

Euro failed just above the 1.33 level again and ECB’s Hansen said Wednesday that they consider another round of LTRO and Draghi said yesterday that ECB still emphasized the asymmetrical interest bias.

Coffee futures are again above the 1.20 level and I think we might have bottomed out in the coffee market.

Asian equity markets traded mixed overnight Nikkei 225 up 0.12%, Shanghai down 0.74% and S&P/ASX 200 down 0.44%

No major companies report earnings today.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 14.29 last night and I think towards the 12 level it would be a decent long trade.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1705

8568

109.77

504

1.3423

Res 2

1695

8538

109.17

493

1.3390

Res 1

1691

8516

108.73

485

1.3329

Sup1

1680

8439

107.20

468

1.3248

Sup 2

1677

8324

106.51

463

1.3223

Sup 3

1667

8268

106.36

453

1.3163

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

13.75

14.92

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1633

8174

100.03

530

1.3150

200 EMA

1584

8005

97.94

564

1.3073

14 Day avg. Volume

1502K

90K

165K

83K

185K

S&P 500 Emini futures – Tested key resistance at 1690 yesterday, but was rejected on the first test. Key support to keep the bullish trend alive is 1677 now and if this level is broken we could see a deeper sell off.

Dax futures – The 8500 level has proved to be hard resistance over the last months and it has not been able to stay above this level more than 4 days total all year and it has traded significantly lower over the following week every time. Will it be different this time? The volume on the approach towards 8500 have not been that solid and this signals it might be though to break above the 8568 high on this rally as well.  However for every hour that passes by and the prices keeps above 8460 makes it more likely a break will happen.

Corn – Pretty good rebound off that 465 low yesterday and I am looking for a move higher next towards 493 resistance over the next week.  

Crude Oil – Key support today comes in at 107.20 and looks like a long on dips as long as the Syria situation is still in focus. A break below 107.20 might be a bigger problem and could trigger a deeper sell off. Keep in mind that we probably have a 10 USD/barrel risk premium due to the unrest in the Middle East.

Euro – Looks bearish below 1.3350 now and next downside target is 1.3070 support.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

14:30     US Retail Sales (0.5%)

14:30     US PPI (0.2%)

15:55     Michigan Consumer Sentiment (82.6)

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