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Market Reports

Market reports from the KBR Capital Partners trading desk

Posted by on in Market Reports

Friday 6th of March 2015 as of 11:00 CET

The main focus for today will US nonfarm payrolls data at 1430 CET. The expectation is for a number of 235k according to Bloomberg survey.

A thing to keep in mind is the strengthening dollar could become a major drag on the earnings for US companies in Q1 and Q2.

The ECB President indicated yesterday that he is slightly more upbeat on the Eurozone economy providing additional to equites in Europe yesterday.

Crude oil is below the 51 dollar per barrel this morning and the rally above 52 level yesterday was short lived. We have resistance up at the 52.50 level followed by key resistance at 55. The 55 level is the key pivot levels for the bulls that have to be taken out, to open for a major move higher.

S&P 500 futures failed at 2117 last week and it will be interesting to see if we can get a daily close below 2080 now. That would be a warning signal for the bulls.

Euro is looking weak below the 1,13 level and the next major downside target is the 1.07 level.

Silver looks like an interesting long towards 15 level for a potential rebound towards 18,50 level.

Gold is weak below 1230 USD. Big support is 1080 level.

Asian markets closed mixed with Hong Kong Hang Seng Index down 0,12%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0,09% and Nikkei 225 up 1,17%.

Contact info:

Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Tuesday 21st of January 2014 as of 12:00 CET

S&P 500 futures are up 5 points at 1839.25 and Dax is up 49 points at 9766. We have been trading in a sideways market for some time and we approaching a breakout. The levels that really matters in the S&P500 futures are 1847 resistance and 1809 support. A break of any of these levels could trigger a larger move.

We have noticed over the last weeks that an increasing number of companies in the US have guided lower on future earnings and expectations are quite low. This is something to watch going forward as we think the S&P500 at these levels needs to see a pickup in the earnings if the bull market is going to continue.

Asian markets crept higher on overnight as Japanese stocks rebounded and Chinese money rates eased, while the U.S. dollar got a fillip from a report the Federal Reserve would again trim its bond buying next week.

 

Investors had a wary eye on Chinese money markets after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a surprise injection of funds on Monday aimed at curbing a recent spike in rates.

Traders on Tuesday said the central bank intended to add 255 billion yuan ($42.13 billion) to the money markets, the largest single-day injection since February 2013.

The move dragged the 7-day bond repurchase rate down to 5.25 percent, from 6.60 percent on Monday.

 

Dealers assume the authorities were attempting to avoid a repeat of the severe cash crunch that roiled markets in June.

 

The dollar broke the early lethargy with a hop to 104.61 yen, when the Wall Street Journal reported the Fed is on track to trim its bond-buying program for the second time in six weeks, paring back by $10 billion to $65 billion a month.

The drop in the yen helped Japan's Nikkei 225 index bounce more than a percent, and dragged up markets from South Korea to Taiwan. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan swung round to be 0.36 percent firmer.

 

A lackluster U.S. jobs report had not diminished the central bank's confidence in the economy, wrote Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath. Investors suspect he has an inside line to policy makers and put a lot of weight on his opinion.

It was enough to nudge 10-year U.S. Treasury yields up a couple of basis points to 2.84 percent, following the U.S. market holiday on Monday.

 

Likewise, investors will be watching liquidity operations by the European Central Bank later Tuesday to see if it acts to correct a recent sharp rise in money rates, a tightening of conditions that could threaten the region's recovery.

The euro edged back a touch to $1.3561, not far from Monday's two-month trough of $1.3508.

This morning, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at 61.7, below the 63.4 expectation.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed at 12.44 Friday, this is pretty much on the low of the range, and it looks attractive to get long at these levels in our opinion. However keep in mind that the all-time low in the VIX is around 10, so given the fact the the S&P500 is higher than it was at the all-time low, the volatility might make a new low too before we see any significant correction lower in the S&P500.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1865

9900

97.30

445

1.3910

Res 2

1851

9850

96.80

436

1.3800

Res 1

1847

9800

95.00

430

1.3730

Sup1

1829

9670

93.60

420

1.3650

Sup 2

1822

9642

92.53

417

1.3530

Sup 3

1809

9575

91.30

405

1.3460

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

12

14

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1759

9043

98.08

446

1.3279

200 EMA

1695

8703

98.93

479

1.3202

14 Day avg. Volume

1116K

81K

126K

112K

159K

 S&P 500 Emini futures –  Bullish momentum intact above 1829 support today and the key level that the bulls needs to break very soon is 1847 high, in order to sustain the bullish momentum. We have a bigh upside target at 1865. A break below 1809 could open for a 100 points or more correction. Remember we have plenty of room down to the 200 day moving average at 1695.

Dax futures – Saw a slight rejection at 9800 on Friday and a decent sell off right after the options expiration makes us a bit cautions on the Dax this week. We need to see a break above 9800 next few days to avoid a break below 9642, which is the December high.

Corn –  Stronger USD hurting corn and cannot really get any real bounce so far, still looks like a long trade, but need to see momentum to get into this one. The big trigger for the bulls would be a daily close above 445.

Crude Oil – Decent bounce off the 91.30 level low from 9th of Jan. and have tested the 95.00 resistance level, but not been able to break above it so far. The bulls need to get above 95.00 and follow up with a daily close above the former breakdown level of 96.80 (12th of Dec low).  As long as the 93.60 support holds the recovery mode of the market stays intact.

Euro – We favour selling the Euro on rallies below the 1.3650 resistance level and the first downside target is a 1.3395, followed by key support at 1.3288.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

No Major Economic data today

 

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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Posted by on in Market Reports

Monday 25th of November 2013 as of 15:00 CET

Friday marked the first daily close above 1800 in the S&P500 emini futures (ES) and the ES is approaching some key resistance levels from 1808.50 to 1812, which will be a hard zone to take out on the first attempt in our opinion. It looks like a try to fill the gap in ES (1801) from Friday is the most likely action off the opening bell today.

Keep in mind that the S&P500 up for seven straight weeks.

Asia traded higher on the back of news out on Iran, reaching a deal to sell more oil and less sanctions in return for curbing the Nuclear program.

We have a Holiday shortened week this week due to Thanksgiving in the US and we expect very low volumes throughout the week. The stock markets will be closed Thursday and half Friday.

There are no scheduled FOMC speakers this week, but there will be several ECB members speaking this week. 

ECB’s Noyer said this morning that he wants inflation to move back towards 2% before considering a change to the ECB low rate policy.  

On an other note, the Euro area bank balance sheets have been shrinking severely, by 3.5tr Euro or 10% since May 2012. The biggest contributor has been contraction in the derivatives book followed by a retrenchment from interbank markets.  According to JP Morgan, the main driver behind this change is the change in regulations.

Full earnings calendar can be found here at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US

VIX closed 12.26 on Friday, which is very much in the lower end of the recent range, but still a bit higher than the all time low seen in the VIX just above 10 some years back.

Technicals

Market

S&P 500 emini (ES)

Dax

Crude

Corn

Eur/Usd

Res 3

1828.00

9394

96.55

470

1.3657

Res 2

1812.00

9376

96.00

464

1.3639

Res 1

1808.50

9327

95.54

459

1.3550

Sup1

1796.00

9173

94.10

434

1.3380

Sup 2

1792.00

9111

93.80

427

1.3260

Sup 3

1788.00

9020

93.23

420

1.3200

ATM calls Vols. nearby month

12

13

21.13

30.89

7.73

100 EMA

1698

8656

99.00

486

1.3279

200 EMA

1637

8361

101.18

520

1.3202

14 Day avg. Volume

1488K

90K

163K

85K

159K

S&P 500 Emini futures – Bullish momentum is intact above 1797 support for and we have key resistance at 1808.50 for today. There is a strong resistance zone up at 1808.50-1812 that can be expected to hold on the first test. The weekly pivot is 1793 and a daily close below this level puts focus back on 1770 key support, which is the big level the bears need to get below to open for any meaningful correction.

Dax futures – Trading above 9300 level this morning and there is major resistance towards 9372 that should hold on the first attempt. The bears need to get below 9111 to get things moving lower towards the big support level at 8670.

Corn –  Need to see a daily close above 424 to really open for any short squeeze today. Looking a daily chart it needs to close above 438 resistance to get things moving higher in the bigger picture.

Crude – Good bouce off key support at 93.20 level this morning and we have daily resistance at 94.20 and 94.36 that needs to be taken out to open for a move to close the gap from Friday. It needs to get a daily close above 96 to open for a bigger recovery towards 99 level.

Euro – Selling rallies looks the most attractive right now at least below 1.3550 for the time being. There is good support down in the 1.3380 area.

Today’s Economic Calendar (CET):

16:00     US Pending Home Sales (2.2%)

Contact info:
Trading Desk                                            

Tel:        +47-40 38 27 52

Email:    This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Web:     www.kbrcapitalpartners.com

 

 

Risk Warning:  

Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by KBR Capital Partners AS with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Prices can go down as well as up. There is a significant risk involved in derivatives trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Conditions can vary from client to client, and therefore influence performance. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice.

 

 

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